The fall in industrial production in May led to a reduction in GDP of around 4% in Q2. However, the return to growth during the second half-year period is not called into question, as demonstrated by the fact that the leading indicators are continuing to improve. But it is not yet fully established. Despite recent signs of stabilisation, a further fall in the property market is all the more probable given that rates are not quickly falling back below 5%. In addition, degearing by all the agents in the private sector in the face of the credit crisis will continue to guide their behaviour.

The credit establishments, insufficiently capitalised to face up to the huge increase in defaults, are substantially reducing their balance sheets: their lending to private agents has been reduced by nearly $700 billion in Q1, or 5 points of GDP, nearly ¾ ($500 billion) of which was lent to businesses.

Although businesses have been able to face up to this with massive bond issues since the beginning of the year, their degearing, which has become an inescapable fact, will affect their spending on investments: profits are still falling and their debt represents more than 100% of their added value, which is a record since the Second World War. Finally, the rise in the household savings rate to 6.9% in May, 2 points of which went towards the reduction in debt, is still likely to continue; however, consumption should stabilise due to reductions in taxes and additional social welfare assistance.

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